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Prediction for CME (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-28T21:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39818/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 4.2nT to 13.2nT , B_x: approx. 6.7nT to -8.1nT , B_y: approx. 4.8nT to -4.9nT , B_z: approx. -7.6nT to 9.7nT) along with enhancement in speed (approx. 342km/s to 407km/s), temperature (approx. 12kK to 44kK) and density (approx. 7p/cc to 33p/cc). This signature also displays separation in magnetic field components, indicating the possible passage of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-03T05:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-02T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33 - 5.33
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jun 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

...A partial halo CME was observed beginning at 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2
imagery. This event is likely associated with a C4.0 flare from Region
4126 (N07W42, Cso/beta) at 28/1954 UTC. Modelling suggest arrival early
on 02 Jul.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jun 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

...A partial halo CME was observed around 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery,
in association with a C4.0 flare from Region 4126 (N08W51, Cso/beta) at
28/1954 UTC, and likely has a significant Earth-directed component.
Recent modeling and analysis suggest arrival on 02 Jul.

Lead Time: 80.23 hour(s)
Difference: 28.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-29T21:24Z

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