CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-28T21:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39818/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 4.2nT to 13.2nT , B_x: approx. 6.7nT to -8.1nT , B_y: approx. 4.8nT to -4.9nT , B_z: approx. -7.6nT to 9.7nT) along with enhancement in speed (approx. 342km/s to 407km/s), temperature (approx. 12kK to 44kK) and density (approx. 7p/cc to 33p/cc). This signature also displays separation in magnetic field components, indicating the possible passage of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-03T05:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-02T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33 - 5.33
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jun 30 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

...A partial halo CME was observed beginning at 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2
imagery. This event is likely associated with a C4.0 flare from Region
4126 (N07W42, Cso/beta) at 28/1954 UTC. Modelling suggest arrival early
on 02 Jul.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jun 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

...A partial halo CME was observed around 28/2112 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery,
in association with a C4.0 flare from Region 4126 (N08W51, Cso/beta) at
28/1954 UTC, and likely has a significant Earth-directed component.
Recent modeling and analysis suggest arrival on 02 Jul.
Lead Time: 80.23 hour(s)
Difference: 28.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-29T21:24Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy